Japanese Yen: Range-bound as BoJ stays cautious – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman's Ellias Haddad expects Japan’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher but remain below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2026 projection, limiting pressure for rapid tightening. With markets pricing minimal odds of an October hike and higher probability for December, Haddad sees USD/JPY likely trading in a 155.00–160.00 range in the near term as BoJ normalization remains gradual.

Limited BOJ tightening caps Yen

"Japan September CPI (Friday). Headline CPI is expected at 2.1% y/y vs. 1.9% in August, core CPI ex. fresh food is expected at 2.1% y/y vs. 1.7% in August, and core CPI ex. fresh food & energy CPI is expected at 2.3% y/y vs.1.9% in August."

"The BOJ is unlikely to crank up the pace of tightening with headline and core CPI ex. fresh food & energy tracking below its 2026 projection of 2.5%. The swaps curve price in less than 5% odds of a 25bps BOJ rate hike to 1.50% on October 30, and 80% probability of a hike on December 18."

"That leaves USD/JPY likely to trade within a 155.00-160.00 range in the near term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)