GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bears await break below trading range support near 1.3180
- GBP/USD remains on the defensive amid the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the USD.
- The hawkish Fed, elevated US bond yields, and geopolitical risks continue to support the buck.
- BoE rate hike bets help limit deeper losses, though the technical setup favors bearish traders.
The GBP/USD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction, trading near the 1.3200 mark through the Asian session on Thursday and within striking distance of the lowest level since late June, touched last week.
The US Dollar (USD) retains its bullish undertone near an 18-month high amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, elevated US bond yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair, though bets for tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England (BoE) offer some support to the British Pound (GBP) and help limit deeper losses.
From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the decline from the August swing high. The top end of the said range now coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that rallies are vulnerable while the broader structure leans lower.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in negative territory with a slightly contracting profile, hinting that downside momentum persists but is not aggressive. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.7 stays below the midline, reinforcing a mildly bearish bias. This, in turn, backs the case for an eventual breakdown below the trading range support near 1.3180.
The subsequent fall would set the stage for an extension of the downfall from the August monthly swing high near 1.3675. On the topside, the 1.3285 confluence might keep a lid on any attempted recovery. A sustained move above this barrier would be needed to ease the current pressure and open the way for a more constructive phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.